tl;dr:
At the current build rate of renewables, the National Electricity Market (NEM) will be approximately 52% renewable by 2030. This does not include rooftop solar capacity additions.
This will reduce emissions from electricity by approximately 60% from 2010 levels.
Electric Vehicles will then clearly have the lowest emissions per kilometer driven, inclusive of manufacturing.
Australia needs to decide whether we want to maintain this status quo, slow it, or accelerate it.
Long Version:
Unfortunately I have to exclude Western Australia here, as getting their statistics is somewhat more hard as they are not part of the National Electricity Market (NEM). The NEM equates to the east coast of Australia and includes the vast majority of our electricity consumption. Note that one source (OpenNEM) uses calendar year, whereas another uses financial year (AEMC), so these figures are simply ball-park.
NEM Electricity generation was 203.2 TWh during 2018, of this 20.2% was renewable. These figures equate to an average power level of 23.2 GW and 4.69 GW respectively. [1] From the AEMC 2018 RESIDENTIAL ELECTRICITY PRICE TRENDS REVIEW, 8961 MW of new large-scale intermittent generation is expected to enter the NEM over the analysis period of 2017-18 to 2020-21 (four years) and demand is relatively flat (not increasing or decreasing year-on year). Anyway, approximately 50% of this is 8961 MW is wind, 50% solar. Given an average power (capacity factor) of 39.5% [3] for wind and 27% for solar [3], this equates to an average power of 2980 MW. These capacity additions do NOT include additions of rooftop solar, which presently accounts for two-thirds of all solar.
Let's assume we can add 2980 MW of renewable energy (average power) every four years until 2030.
4690 Megawatts of existing renewable generation (average power)
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