Fighting between Morocco and the pro-independence Polisario Front over the disputed territory of Western Sahara flared up again in November 2020. External powers are divided and reluctant to step in, while the UN succeeded in filling its long-vacant envoy position only in October 2021.

Diplomatic inattention risks pushing the two sides toward further military escalation. Tensions also threaten to spill over into the rest of North Africa and beyond, as highlighted by diplomatic spats between Morocco and each of Algeria, Germany and Spain.

With U.S. diplomatic support at the UN Security Council, the new UN envoy should focus on rebuilding confidence and relaunching negotiations, backed by other outside actors and specifically the EU, which should deploy a mix of financial incentives and disincentives.

The rest of the report can be found here: https://www.crisisgroup.org/middle-east-north-africa/north-africa/western-sahara/227-relaunching-negotiations-over-western-sahara